Any one of several similar folk theorems that fit computing capacity
or cost to a 2t exponential curve, with doubling
time close to a year. The most common fits component density to such a
curve (previous versions of this entry gave that form). Another variant
asserts that the dollar cost of constant computing power decreases on the
same curve. The original Moore's Law, first uttered in 1965 by
semiconductor engineer Gordon Moore (who co-founded Intel four years
later), spoke of the number of components on the lowest-cost silicon
integrated circuits — but Moore's own formulation varied somewhat
over the years, and reconstructing the meaning of the terminology he used
in the original turns out to be fraught with difficulties. Further
variants were spawned by Intel's PR department and various
journalists.
It has been shown
that none of the variants of Moore's Law actually fit the data very well
(the price curves within DRAM generations perhaps come closest).
Nevertheless, Moore's Law is constantly invoked to set up expectations
about the next generation of computing technology. See also
Parkinson's Law of Data and Gates's
Law.